The Bottleneck Has Moved to the Hand

China’s humanoid build-out crossed into volume this year and immediately hit the end effector. MIIT data puts first-half output above 40,000 units with a full-year outlook past 100,000; UBTech’s Liuzhou plant, live since September, rolls one unit off the line every ten minutes, Agibot passed 20,000 cumulative units in September, and Zhejiang Humanoid expanded its Ouchi plant from hundreds to thousands a year with a 10,000-unit path through partner sites. Beijing’s three-year action plan, issued on 11 November, targets 200,000 units of annual capacity inside the capital by 2028, 25% of national capacity across Jing-Jin-Ji and more than 60% localisation of key parts. The supply side is responding — Ningbo suppliers tripled year on year, Leisai sits inside more than 80% of integrators with over a million frameless torque motors on order — yet the dexterous hand still accounts for about 20% of bill of materials, half of it actuators, and every unit needs 1,000 grip cycles plus 48 hours of burn-in before it ships: the distance between shipping a robot and deploying one.